A Discussion on Snubs
Every year things get snubbed at the Oscars. Here is what I expect to get snubbed that actually had a chance (I am not counting my personal preferences that didn't have any chance at all, but I'm also not counting my personal preferences that *did* have a chance that I thought did not deserve it). And by having a chance I mean that they're in a movie that got enough exposure, etc., not that they were ever actually in the running. Obviously there's only five nominees per category so it might not be a snub, you might unfortunately be 6th place, but here we go:
Best Picture
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The Constant Gardener
King Kong
Syriana
Best Director
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Fernando Meirelles -- The Constant Gardener
Peter Jackson -- King Kong
Stephen Gaghan -- Syriana
Best Actor
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Ralph Fiennes -- The Constant Gardener
Terrence Howard -- Hustle and Flow
Jeff Daniels -- The Squid and the Whale (Note: I still think this is supporting!)
Best Actress (A weak category, and the Academy will pick even weaker nominees)
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Naomi Watts -- King Kong
Keira Knightley -- Pride and Prejudice
Joan Allen -- The Upside of Anger
Gwyneth Paltrow -- Proof
Best Supporting Actor
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I'm not predicting any. This (as well as best actress) is a ridiculously weak category this year. Maybe several people who end up not getting nominated for Crash, depending on if their part in the movie is actually long enough.
Best Supporting Actress
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Maria Bello -- A History of Violence
Laura Linney -- The Squid and the Whale
Thandie Newton -- Crash
Best Original Screenplay
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Junebug (some may argue it is too small, but Amy Adams is getting enough attention now, so I don't think so).
Syriana
The 40 Year Old Virgin
Best Adapted Screenplay
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Where I disagree here is mostly in the areas of movies that never had a shot so I'm not listing any.
Note:
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Not all of these snubs are going to make it on my personal ballot. They all *are* however, better than at least one thing that is going to get nominated in their category.
The Main Reason Why Things Get Snubbed, Besides Not Being Liked
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Category confusion. Is it Lead or Supporting? Is it Original or Adapted? As I discussed a few posts ago, Syriana is out due to a confusion of this sort by the Academy decreeing that it was original when it was being pushed as Adapted. However, a much bigger issue is the Lead/Supporting thing. Here is a list of people who may have gotten in, but probably won't, due to people not being sure what category they're in (The Academy does not make decrees in this regard like they do in the writing categories):
Jeff Daniels -- The Squid and the Whale
Maria Bello -- A History of Violence
Laura Linney -- The Squid and the Whale
What is in common with these people? All of them will be on my list, coming soon.
3 Comments:
You really think they'll snub The Constant Gardener for BP? That would be too bad. I liked Crash, but I don't think it's a "best pic".
2:14 PM
I am pretty sure they will snub "The Constant Gardener". I don't like "Crash" for Best Pic either (while it's a good movie, I don't think it's as masterfully insightful as some people are claiming), but that one is in.
There's an outside chance I suppose. But it's looking like BBM, GNAGL, and Crash are locks, with Munich/Walk the Line/Capote fighting for the other two... and The Constant Gardener a distant #7. However today The Constant Gardener received the most nominations at the BAFTAS (British Oscars, essentially) which could indicate something good for it, but the BAFTAs are also biased towards British films with British stars in them.
3:16 PM
Another thing to consider here is that "The Constant Gardener" is released by Focus Features, the same company which made "Brokeback Mountain." Guess where their campaigning energy is going right now? I believe Miramax has gotten two nominees before but an "independent" studio doing this is highly, highly unusual.
9:30 PM
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