Oscar Nomination Reactions

Some interesting surprises here. Here were my predictions that I made on January 18th.

Additionally, I will comment on how the categories compare with my personal ballot.

My overall prediction score was 35 out of 40, which is better than my score of 30 out of 40 two years ago but not quite as good as 38 out of 40 from last year.

Anywhere, here they are:

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR

Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich

Prediction Score: 4/5. The first time since 2002 that I missed anything in this category. The fifth spot was a toughie. It could've been Munich, Walk the Line, or less likely, The Constant Gardener. I did not get the toss-up correctly.

Matches with my personal ballot: 1/5. This is misleading though. I am actually shocked at how good this list of nominees is. There is usually at least one, many times more, nominees in this category that I think are bad movies. That is not the case this year.

I'm rooting for: Brokeback Mountain

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller - Capote
Paul Haggis - Crash
George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck
Steven Spielberg - Munich

Prediction Score: 5/5. Got them all! I am shocked that the director category actually matched the picture category exactly, it has not happened since 1982.

Matches with my personal ballot: 1/5. Again, I'm not complaining too much here. Nothing absolutely terrible was nominated and that is a good thing.

I'm rooting for: Ang Lee

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Terrence Howard - Hustle and Flow
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line
David Strathairn - Good Night, and Good Luck

Prediction Score: 4/5. Terrence Howard! I had a feeling he'd get in somewhere, but I didn't think it would be here, so I put him in supporting instead.

Matches with my personal ballot: 3/5. This is a very good slate of candidates. Joaquim Phoenix and Terrence Howard might have not been on my list but this was a very strong category this year. I really would have liked to have seen Ralph Fiennes get in but I am really happy that Russell Crowe did not.

I'm rooting for: Phillip Seymour Hoffman

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Keira Knightley - Pride and Prejudice
Charlize Theron - North Country
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line

Prediction Score: 4/5. They actually nominated Keira Knightley! I had her predicted earlier and changed my mind because she did not receive a BAFTA nomination (if the BAFTAs do not nominate a British person it is a bad sign). I'll kick myself for that one.

Matches with my personal ballot: 2/5. This category is horrible, horrible, horrible. Judi Dench played herself, Felicity Huffman wasn't very good and her movie was horrible, the same with Charlize Theron.

I'm rooting for: Keira Knightley

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

George Clooney - Syriana
Matt Dillon - Crash
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt - A History of Violence

Prediction Score: 4/5. William Hurt! Shocker. There was absolutely no prior indication of this one happening. And he is in the movie for about 5 minutes!

Matches with my personal ballot: 1/5. Jake Gyllenhall was the only match here, but none of these performances were bad, I just thought there were better ones. The only reason why I didn't personally nominate anyone from Crash was because everyone's part was too small. Even though I didn't have him on my list, glad to see Paul Giamatti in (and likely for the win) after getting snubbed horribly the last two years (2003, American Splendor, and 2004, Sideways).

I'm rooting for: Paul Giamatti

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Amy Adams - Junebug
Catherine Keener - Capote
Frances McDormand - North Country
Rachel Weisz - Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain

Prediction Score: 5/5. Got them all!

Matches with my personal ballot: 2/5. Michelle Williams was good, but this is a strong category and I thought there were better choices. Catherine Keener in my opinion didn't have that great of a performance in an otherwise good movie, there was just not much there. Frances McDormand is a terrible, terrible choice. The real awful thing here is that Maria Bello did not get in for A History of Violence, because if anything should have gotten in for that movie, she was it.

I'm rooting for: Amy Adams or Rachel Weisz

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence
Munich

Prediction Score: 5/5. Got them all!

Matches with my personal ballot: 4/5.

I didn't actually think the Oscars would do something like nominate Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang, so this is actually a pretty good slate.

I'm rooting for: The Constant Gardener or Brokeback Mountain

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Match Point
The Squid at the Whale
Syriana

Prediction Score: 4/5. I did not think Syriana would get in because of what I wrote about here. And I'm glad they snubbed Cinderella Man to put it in there.

Matches with my personal ballot: 3/5.

This is a pretty good slate of nominees. I didn't think they would ever nominate Junebug here, and I don't have a match with Good Night, and Good Luck because not putting biopic screenplays into my personal ballot for original screenplay is just a personal thing of mine.

I'm rooting for: The Squid and the Whale or Crash

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What a good year for smaller, "independent" movies.

4/5 Best Picture nominations!
4/5 Best Director Nominations!
4/5 Best Actor Nominations!
3/5 Best Actress Nominations (although I still hate this category)!
3/5 Supporting Actor Nominations!
4/5 Supporting Actress Nominations!
4/5 Adapted Screenplay Nominations!
3/5 Original Screenplay Nominations!

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Films with more than one nomination:

Brokeback Mountain - 8
Crash - 6
Good Night and Good Luck - 6
Memoirs of a Geisha - 6
Capote - 5
Munich - 5
Walk the Line - 5
King Kong - 4
Pride and Prejudice - 4
Constant Gardener - 4
The Chronicles of Narnia - 3
Cinderella Man - 3
War of the Worlds - 3
A History of Violence - 2
Hustle and Flow - 2
Mrs. Henderson Presents - 2
North Country - 2
Syriana - 2
Transamerica - 2

Memoirs of a Geisha has more nominations than two of the best picture nominees? Hmm.

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Other categories of interest:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR

Howl's Moving Castle
Corpse Bride
Wallace and Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Gasp! They actually nominated the three best animated movies of the year, and none of the retread CGI garbage that the industry has been putting out. I'm really surprised at this. I'm *really* surprised that they nominated Howl's Moving Castle (my personal choice for best animated movie). It won't win, and Hayao Miyazaki has already won in this category for Spirited Away a couple of years ago, but it's nice to see it mentioned.

I'm rooting for: Howl's Moving Castle

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Darwin's Nightmare
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
March of the Penguins
Murderball
Streetfight

Not a bad slate. Although Grizzly Man should have been in here. It may not have been eligible, the documentary category has the second weirdest eligibility rules of any Oscar category.

I'm rooting for: Murderball

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR

Don't Tell
Joyeux Noèl
Paradise Now
Sophie Scholl - The Final Days
Tsotsi

I haven't seen any of these movies so I have no idea. This is the category with the *weirdest* eligibility rules. For one, each country is only allowed to select one movie which is eligible for nomination. Number two, there are some pretty weird release date requirements for the movies that I don't completely understand. For all I know, some of my own foreign movie choices could have been eligible in previous years. I'm not going to do a comparison against my own choices here.

I'm rooting for: Nothing! Haven't seen them.

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY

Batman Begins
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World

This is an important category for me (although I don't try to predict it, because the choices can be somewhat random) since it showcases the *beauty* of a film, how well it was shot. Very nice to see The New World in here, very disappointing to see The Constant Gardener out. I like the choices here pretty much. Memoirs of a Geisha was an awful movie but it *did* have good cinematography. If I had to knock out something, I guess I would knock out Good Night, and Good Luck. Or if you go by the "don't nominate things done for bad movies" rule, then knock out Memoirs after all.

I'm rooting for: The New World

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SCORE)

Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Pride and Prejudice

Glad to see The Constant Gardener in, but I am annoyed that they left out King Kong.

I'm rooting for: Brokeback Mountain or The Constant Gardener. One thing I do not like about this category is that I feel this should be split into separate categories. One for big, bombastic, orchestral scores and another for minimal scores. Can you really easily compare a minimal score like Brokeback Mountain to a large-scale one like Memoirs of a Geisha?

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What makes me happy and what disappointes me:

The Good That Got In:

Amy Adams for Junebug. Thought she might not make it.
The Squid and the Whale for Original Screenplay. It was a very, very small movie and it is nice to see it in.
Terrence Howard for Hustle and Flow. The academy is getting less stuffy! They nominated a guy who sings a song called "It's hard out here for a pimp" in the movie!
Keira Knightley for Pride and Prejudice. I really thought she wouldn't get in after the BAFTA nominations. It's good to see that they at least have some taste in this otherwise (aside from Reese Witherspoon) absolutely horrible category.
Howl's Moving Castle in Best Animated Film.
The New World in Best Cinematography. I thought this movie would get completely ignored.
The Constant Gardener in for Best Original Score.

The Disappointments That Did Not:

The Constant Gardener for Best Picture.
Fernando Meirelles for The Constant Gardener in Best Director.
Ralph Fiennes for The Constant Gardener in Best Actor.
Naomi Watts for King Kong in Best Actress.
Maria Bello for A History of Violence in Best Supporting Actress.
The Constant Gardener in Best Cinematography.
King Kong left out for Best Original Score.

Anything else that's on my personal ballot that I didn't list as a disappointment I didn't think had any slightest chance of being nominated which is why I don't list it above.

Winner predictions up on the sidebar. I will be adjusting them after the WGA are announced.