Guild Award Reactions

Directors Guild of America - Ang Lee -- Brokeback Mountain

Screen Actors Guild

Best Supporting Actress - Rachel Weisz -- The Constant Gardener
Best Supporting Actor - Paul Giamatti -- Cinderella Man
Best Lead Actress - Reese Witherspoon -- Walk the Line
Best Lead Actor - Phillip Seymour Hoffman -- Capote
Ensemble - Crash

The Writer Guild of America is still yet to give out their awards on Feb. 4th.

What do these all mean?

Well first of all, with the win at the PGA and the DGA Brokeback Mountain is about the surest thing for a Best Picture and Best Director win as is possible. If it loses in either category I will probably projectile vomit in pure unadulterated shock.

For this, congratulations to:

1) Focus Features. They in my opinion, unlike Miramax before them, rely on making quality film and the acclaim follows, rather than aggressive behind the scenes Oscar campaigning. Does anyone really think that Shakespeare in Love deserved best picture? Their films are consistently of high quality and in my opinion should've taken best picture the last two years already (2003, Lost in Translation, and 2004, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind).

2) Ang Lee. Even though I like Steven Soderbergh, Ang Lee was robbed in 2000 for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. He'll get what he deserved to get earlier.

Secondly, the acting categories:

Best Supporting Actress: It looks like Rachel Weisz is pretty much a lock for this.

Best Supporting Actor: Even though Giamatti won SAG, I still think it is a toss-up between him and George Clooney. As I've mentioned previously, I think there is a good chance that Clooney will get a "consolation prize" Oscar in either the Supporting Actor or Original Screenplay category. Everyone in Hollywood likes this guy, and if Brokeback Mountain weren't around, he'd probably take best director.

Best Actress: Reese won SAG, Felicity won the Globe. I think the SAG is more reliable, but either one could take it. Edge to Reese for now though.

Best Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman just locked himself up a Best Actor Oscar, barring a pretty huge surprise.

Ensemble: Crash won it, which isn't a surprise at all. This doesn't have any relevance to it winning best picture, I think, but certainly guarantees that we'll be seeing it get a nomination come Tuesday.

I am interested to see what the WGA will do on the 4th. If they end up giving Original Screenplay to Good Night and Good Luck, it's a good indication that Giamatti will win Supporing Actor. If it goes to Crash, there's a good chance Clooney will get it instead. Or I might be wrong about this whole consolation prize thing. But I doubt it.