Awards Will/Should/Can't/Etc and the 6 Year Phenomena

Okay, my obligatory will win/should win/can't win post for the year:

Note that should win is based of course on the actual nominees, and for should have been nominated I have only included things that actually had a chance at it. For example there was no way The New World was ever going to get a best picture nomination.

Also, as far as should have or should nots go, I'm only picking one for each category.

Best Picture
Will win: Brokeback Mountain
Should win: Brokeback Mountain
I'm rooting for: Brokeback Mountain
Should have been nominated: The Constant Gardener
Should not have been nominated: Munich

Best Director
Will win: Ang Lee -- Brokeback Mountain
Should win: Ang Lee -- Brokeback Mountain
I'm rooting for: Ang Lee -- Brokeback Mountain
Should have been nominated: Fernando Meirelles -- The Constant Gardener
Should not have been nominated: Steven Spielberg -- Munich

Best Actor
Will win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman -- Capote
Should win: Heath Ledger -- Brokeback Mountain
I'm rooting for: Phillip Seymour Hoffman -- Capote
Should have been nominated: Ralph Fiennes -- The Constant Gardener
Should not have been nominated: No one sticks out as being particularly undeserving to me. Pick any one of them and boot them out for Ralph Fiennes and I'd be happy.

Note: While I think Heath Ledger was better than Phillip Seymour Hoffman, I don't think he gave the best performance in his own movie, and I happen to have liked PSH in many other movies so I kind of hope he wins for this as he's due for something by now.

Best Actress
Will win: Reese Witherspoon -- Walk the Line
Should win: Keira Knightley -- Pride and Prejudice
I'm rooting for: Keira Knightley -- Pride and Prejudice
Should have been nominated: Naomi Watts -- King Kong
Should not have been nominated: Judi Dench -- Mrs. Henderson Presents

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: George Clooney -- Syriana
Should win: Jake Gyllenhaal -- Brokeback Mountain
I'm rooting for: Paul Giamatti -- Cinderella Man
Should have been nominated: Jeff Daniels -- The Squid and the Whale
Should not have been nominated: Matt Dillon -- Crash

Note: This time my rooting for is different than should win because Paul Giamatti not only not winning, but not even being *nominated*, last year for his spectacular performance in Sideways is one of the worst snubs in Oscar history. I'm still sickened by it. So I wouldn't mind if he had it made up to him.

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Rachel Weisz -- The Constant Gardener
Should win: Amy Adams -- Junebug
I'm rooting for: Rachel Weisz *or* Amy Adams
Should have been nominated: Maria Bello -- A History of Violence
Should not have been nominated: Frances McDormand -- North Country

Note: I only like Amy Adams' performance slightly more than Rachel Weisz's. I would be happy if either of them wins.

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco -- Crash
Should win: Noah Baumbach -- The Squid and the Whale
I'm rooting for: Noah Baumbach -- The Squid and the Whale
Should have been nominated: Angus McLachlan -- Junebug
Should not have been nominated: Woody Allen -- Match Point

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Larry McMurtry, Dianna Ossanna -- Brokeback Mountain
Should win: Larry McMurtry, Dianna Ossanna -- Brokeback Mountain
I'm rooting for: Larry McMurtry, Dianna Ossana -- Brokeback Mountain
Should have been nominated: Hard to think of something that had a chance here.
Should not have been nominated: Tony Kushner & Eric Roth -- Munich

The writing in Munich, particularly the last third of the movie, and the mis-timed beginning to the lead's change in personality over what he's doing is what prevented the movie from being great. I don't know what should take its place necessarily, but it shouldn't be there.

A note on the 6 year phenomena: I agree with the Oscars based on their nominees once every 6 years. Since I think that Brokeback Mountain should win (based on the nominees only, note that it is actually only my #5 of the year and my first four did not get nominated) it probably will.

The last time I agreed with the Oscars based on the nominees? 1999, American Beauty.

The time before that? 1993, Schindler's List.

I wonder what movie will be coming out in 2011 that will be my next match.