Oscar Nomination Predictions 2005

Note: This is not a reflection of what movies I actually like. That will be coming soon in the Fiction Department Awards (I still have a couple movies to see before I can do them). This is what I think will actually be nominated at the Oscars. I enjoy predicting this kind of thing just for fun. Anyway...

Well, now that all the major nomination groups have come out, aside from the BAFTAs, it is time to put out some predictions on what will be nominated for the Oscars come January 31st., 2005. This is sort of exciting, I expect to agree more with the awards this year than any since 1999. But we'll see.

Here's the list:

Best Picture
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Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich
Walk the Line

Best Director
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George Clooney -- Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis -- Crash
Ang Lee -- Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller -- Capote
Steven Spielberg -- Munich

Best Actor
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Russell Crowe -- Cinderella Man
Phillip Seymour Hoffman -- Capote
Heath Ledger -- Brokeback Mountain
Joaquim Phoenix -- Walk the Line
David Strathairn -- Good Night, and Good Luck

Best Actress
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Judi Dench -- Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman -- Transamerica
Keira Knightley -- Pride and Prejudice
Charlize Theron -- North Country
Reese Witherspoon -- Walk the Line

Best Supporting Actor
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George Clooney -- Syriana
Matt Dillon -- Crash
Paul Giamatti -- Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal -- Brokeback Mountain
Bob Hoskins -- Mrs. Henderson Presents

Best Supporting Actress
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Amy Adams -- Junebug
Maria Bello -- A History of Violence
Catherine Keener -- Capote
Michelle Williams -- Brokeback Mountain
Rachel Weisz -- The Constant Gardener

Best Original Screenplay
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Woody Allen -- Match Point
Noah Baumbach -- The Squid and the Whale
Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco -- Crash
Grant Heslov, George Clooney -- Good Night, and Good Luck
Cliff Hollingsworth, Akiva Goldsman -- Cinderella Man

Best Adapted Screenplay
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Jeffrey Caine -- The Constant Gardener
Dan Futterman -- Capote
Stephen Gaghan -- Syriana
Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana -- Brokeback Mountain
Josh Olson -- A History of Violence

Not too bad a lineup. Although I don't like the fact that "A Constant Gardener", "King Kong", "The Squid and the Whale", and "Junebug" are going to get a lot less (if anything at all) than they deserve, this could still shape up to be the first year ever where I have agreed with the Oscars in the Best Picture category for more than two choices.

As far as my expected accuracy... it's a little too hazy right now to tell. I doubt I'll surpass last year, when I got 38/40 correct. The Best Picture category is a little muzzled, you could replace either "Walk the Line" or "Munich" with Capote (but I doubt four small films will be nominated). In best director, you could replace either Spielberg or Miller with Fernando Meirelles ("The Constant Gardener"), David Cronenberg ("A History of Violence"), or maybe even Peter Jackson ("King Kong"). For best actor, I am relatively confident, although Russell Crowe could be out for a variety of spoilers. Best Actress, potentially Keira Knightley is out for Ziyi Zhang ("Memoirs of a Geisha"), but I am hoping that the Academy will recognize that movie for the garbage that it is. In the supporting categories... Amy Adams (her movie is too small) and Maria Bello (is she supporting?) might be risks, in supporting actor Bob Hoskins might be out for some unknown candidate. I think the writing predictions are pretty solid.

We'll find out how right I am pretty soon.